高级检索

中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统（CMA-WSP）在风资源短期预报中的检验评估

Validation and Evaluation of the China Meteorological Administration Wind Energy and Solar Energy Forecasting System (CMA-WSP) in Short-Term Wind Resource Forecasting

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  为检验中国气象局风能太阳能预报系统（CMA-WSP）风速产品在风资源短期预报中的可靠性，对CMA-WSP 100 m风速3 d预报产品进行检验分析。
      方法  文章利用湖北省枣阳周楼、麻城蔡家寨和大金中部3个风电场100 m风速实测数据开展研究。
      结果  研究结果如下：（1）CMA-WSP对枣阳风电场3 d内风速的整体预报效果较好，预报结果与实测风速变化趋势较为一致，逐15 min、小时平均和日平均风速第1 d的预报与实测风速相关系数可达0.728、0.740和0.860，随着预报时效增加，预报与实测相关性逐渐降低。（2）CMA-WSP预报风速与实测风速相对误差变化规律性强，逐15 min、小时平均和日平均风速第1 d预报相对误差分别为68%、70%和92%，预报风速整体高于实测风速；小时平均风速及相对误差均呈现白天小、晚上大的特征；月平均风速变化与MRE值变化呈相反趋势，且在1~6月和10~12月最低、7~9月最大。（3）从地区差异来看，CMA-WSP对枣阳周楼风电场风速的预报效果最好，第1 d预报与实测风速相关性可以达到0.728，第2~3 d的预报相关性也超过0.6，CMA-WSP对蔡家寨和大金中部风电场的预报与实测风速相关系数均低于0.6。
      结论  CMA-WSP风速预报效果整体较好，且相对误差具有一定的规律性，有利于下一步对该产品进行订正、降低误差水平。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  To test the reliability of the CMA-WSP wind speed product in short-term wind resource forecasting, the CMA-WSP 3 d wind speed forecasting product with a wind speed of 100 m is tested and analyzed.
      Method  This research was based on the measured data of 100 m wind speed in three wind farms in Zaoyang Zhoulou, Macheng Caijiazhai and Central Dajin.
      Result  The results are as follows: (1) CMA-WSP has a good overall forecasting performance on the wind speed in Zaoyang wind farm within three days. The forecasted results are consistent with the measured wind speed change trend. The correlation between the forecasted and the measured wind speed on the first day are 0.728, 0.74 and 0.86 for 15 min intervals, hourly averages, and daily averages, respectively. (2) The relative error between the CMA-WSP forecast and the measured wind speed shows a strong regularity. The relative errors for the forecasted wind speed on the first day are 68 %, 70 % and 92 % for 15 min intervals, hourly averages, and daily averages, respectively. The forecasted wind speed is higher than the measured wind speed. The hourly average wind speed and relative error are characterized by low wind speed during the day and high wind speed at night. The change of monthly average wind speed is opposite to the change of MRE value, and it is the lowest from January to June and from October to December, and the highest from July to September. (3) When considering regional differences, CMA-WSP has the best forecasting effect on the wind speed in Zaoyang wind farm. The correlation between the forecasted and the measured wind speed on the first day can reach 0.728, and the correlation on the second to third days is also more than 0.6. The correlation between the forecasted wind speed and the measured wind speed in Caijiazhai and Central Dajin by CMA-WSP is less than 0.6.
      Conclusion  CMA-WSP forecasting performance is favorable as a whole, and the relative error has strong regularity. It is beneficial to revise the product and reduce the error level in the next step.

     

    • HTML全文
    • 参考文献(24)
    • 相关文章
    • 施引文献
  • 资源附件(0)

/

返回文章
返回