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最优组合预测模型在预压处理地基沉降中的应用研究

Application of Optimal Combined Prediction Model for Settlement of Foundation Under Preloading Treatment

  • 摘要:
        目的   为了提高预压地基处理沉降预测及固结度推算精度,提出了以原始累积沉降量时间序列为基础建立最优组合预测模型以及模型的精度评价方法。
        方法   基于传统单一预测模型Compertz模型、灰色G(1,1)模型、Pearl模型,构建最优组合模型,以某天然气热电冷联产项目地基沉降监测时间序列,分别检验各单一模型以及最优组合预测模型(OCP模型)的可靠性与精度,并将三点法,图解法(Asaoka法)及经验双曲线拟合法的预测结果与最优组合预测模型(OCP模型)的计算结果进行了对比分析。
        结果   研究结果表明:单一预测模型Compertz模型、灰色G(1,1)模型、Pearl模型以及最优组合预测模型(OCP模型)均满足“好”的精度等级要求;与常用的三点法,图解法(Asaoka法),经验双曲线法计算结果相比,最优组合预测模型(OCP模型)计算值更接近实际值;
        结论   在进行预压处理地基的沉降预测以及预压后地基土固结度计算和分析时,采用不同方法,能得出合理的评价指标值;最优组合预测模型(OCP模型)可为在预压处理地基施工控制提供一定的指导作用。

     

    Abstract:
        Introduction   In order to predict settlement and calculate consolidation degree of preloading foundation treatment more accurately, this paper puts forward an Optimal Combined Prediction model on the basis of time series of original cumulative settlement and a method of evaluating the accuracy of the model.
        Method   Based on the traditional prediction model, such as Compertz model, grey G (1, 1) model and Pearl model, an Optimal Combined Prediction model (OCP model) was established and the accuracy of all single models and the Optimal Combined Prediction (OCP model) were tested with the monitoring data of foundation settlement at heat-power-cold energy generation system by using natural gas; Meanwhile, the result of the Optimal Combined Prediction model (OCP model) was compared with three-point method, Asaoka method, hyperbolic curves fitting method.
        Result   That shows: the accuracy of all single models and optimal combination model reaches the good precision level; Compared with three-point method, Asaoka method and hyperbolic curves fitting method, the calculated value of the Optimal Combined Prediction (OCP model) is closer to the real value.
        Conclusion   While predicting settlement and calculating the consolidation degree of preloading foundation treatment, different methods are used, reasonable value of evaluation index about foundation treatment can be obtained. The optimal combination prediction model (OCP model) can provide guidance for preloading foundation treatment construction and controlling process.

     

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