核事故应急大气扩散模型ARTM验证与评价

Evaluation of Nuclear Accident Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model ARTM

摘要:
目的针对国内外普遍关注的核事故应急决策支持与事故后果评价的问题，围绕目前验证、评价大气扩散模型的两个主要困难。
方法应用目前国际上应用广泛的KINCAID示踪实验数据集和MVK模型验证评价方法，验证了评价放射性核素大气扩散模型ARTM（Atmospheric Radionuclide Transport Model）。
结果统计结果表明：ARTM的模拟结果基本上是可信赖的，3 km内的预测有低估的趋势，5 km外的预测有高估的趋势。
结论 ARTM模型总体上可以应用于核电厂事故后果评价。

Abstract:
Introduction To address the issue of decisions under nuclear emergency and nuclear accident consequence assessment of common concern at home and abroad， in this paper.
Method Tracer experiment data set KINCAID and model validation and evaluation method MVK both used widely were reviewed. Model ARTM was evaluated using MVK.
Result Statistical results show that： the simulation results of ARTM model are basically reliable.
Conclusion The forecasts in 3 km indicate a tendency of underestimate， while the forecasts out of 5 km indicate a tendency of overestimate.