高级检索

基于灰色关联TOPSIS法的抽水蓄能电站风险评价体系研究

Research on Risk Assessment System of Pumped Storage Power Station Using Grey Relational TOPSIS Method

  • 摘要:
      目的  为有效减少和规避抽水蓄能电站项目在建设运营过程中的各类风险,从风险评价的角度,建立抽水蓄能电站项目的风险评价体系。
      方法  首先分析了抽水蓄能电站的发展环境,建立起抽水蓄能电站的SWOT-PEST风险分析矩阵;在此基础上对电站的风险源进行辨识,确定抽水蓄能电站的风险因素;进而借助灰色关联度分析法和TOPSIS法建立风险评价模型。
      结果  通过对三个具体项目进行实例计算,验证了模型的有效性,并对分析结果进行对比分析,提出了合理化建议。
      结论  论文所建模型和分析思路可为同类抽水蓄能电站项目进行风险评价提供参考,并未风险评价模型的进一步研究提供理论支撑。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  In order to reduce or circumvent various risks in the construction and operation of pumped storage power station projects, this paper aims to establishe a risk assessment system for them.
      Method  Firstly, we established the SWOT-PEST risk analysis matrix by analyzing the development environment, then the risk factors were identified. Secondly, we established the risk evaluation model by using grey correlation analysis and TOPSIS method.
      Result  The results we obtained demonstrate the validity of the model and several rationalization suggestions are put forward.
      Conclusion  This work provides some guidance on risk assessment of similar pumped storage power station projects and further study on risk assessment model.

     

/

返回文章
返回