高级检索

基于组合赋权与聚类的城市节能指标分解研究

Research on Decomposition of Urban Energy-Saving Indicator Based on Combination Weighting and Clustering

  • 摘要:
      目的  “双碳”目标的提出赋予了能源消费强度下降和总量“双控”工作新的要求与内涵,在确保能效优先的同时,应充分考虑地区发展阶段,合理确保“双控”指标层层分解落实。
      方法  以某市“十四五”能耗“双控”指标分解为例,选取可反映各区县(市)经济水平、能耗体量、节能潜力以及“十三五”节能目标完成情况的量化指标,构建基于层次分析和客观赋权相结合的组合赋权分配模型,对各指标进行权值计算,得出“双控”指标分配结果,再以聚类分析法对指标体系进行差异化分与类别聚合。
      结果  通过对照组合赋权与聚类分析结果,基于多指标组合赋权和聚类分析的地区能耗强度下降目标分解算法均能得出基本一致的分解方案。
      结论  再基于上述2种方法的结果,结合实际经济发展状况和政府管理需求,给予不同档次的能耗管理目标,兼顾了地区发展差异,符合国家“十四五”能耗“双控”制度要求和分解原则,具备可复制可推广的特性。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  The proposal of the "dual carbon" strategy has given new requirements and connotations to the reduction of energy consumption intensity and the "dual control" of the total amount. On the premise of adhering to the priority of energy efficiency, we should fully consider the stage of regional development and reasonably ensure the "dual control" indicators are decomposed and implemented layer by layer.
      Method  Taking the decomposition of the "dual control" indicators of energy consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" of a certain city as an example, this paper selected quantifications that could reflect the economic level, energy consumption volume, energy-saving potential and the completion of the energy-saving goals of the "13th Five-Year Plan" indicators of each district and county (city) and built a combined weighting assignment model based on the combination of hierarchical analysis and objective weighting to calculate the weight of each indicator, obtaining the "dual control" indicator distribution results, and then used clustering analysis to carry out the differentiation of the indicator system and cluster aggregation.
      Result  By comparing the results of combination weighting and clustering analysis, the regional energy consumption intensity reduction target decomposition algorithm based on multi-indicator combination weighting and clustering analysis can obtain basically consistent results.
      Conclusion  Based on the results of the above two methods, the actual economic development and government management needs, the energy consumption management targets of different levels are obtained, which takes into account regional development differences, conforms to the national "14th Five-Year Plan" energy consumption "dual control" system requirements and decomposition principle, and has the characteristics of replicability and promotion.

     

/

返回文章
返回