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桂北低温冰冻天气对高山风力发电的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Low Temperature and Freezing Weather in Northern Guangxi on High-Altitude Wind Power Generation

  • 摘要:
      目的  风资源丰富的湘桂走廊,也是冷空气南下广西的通道。每到冬季,常常出现低温、冰冻等灾害性天气,会导致风机叶片覆冰、材料及结构性能改变、载荷改变等多种问题,造成风机使用寿命降低、影响发电产能。在广西,寒潮低温天气对风力发电的影响受到广泛关注,低温条件对风电场运行阶段有着重要的影响,目前鲜有对于风电机组低温天气运行及其影响进行统计分析的研究。
      方法  文章利用实况观测资料、欧洲中心ERA5的0.25×0.25再分析资料,以及广西风电公司有关凝冰停机及弃风电损数据,分析了2023年12月15日~24日低温冰冻天气过程对桂林北部高山风力发电业务的影响,同时分析了桂林灾害性低温冰冻天气的形成机理与预报技术。
      结果  发现环境温度、空气湿度与风电损耗存在相关的关系,得出相关性公式。
      结论  成果将为未来桂林高山风电场低温天气的预报预警及风力发电功率预测提供基础。利用数值预报的温度预报产品,提前预报未来逐日停机台数和电损,助力风功率预测。同时高精度冰冻灾害天气预报预警可优化客户资源配置,降低客户财产损失,确保人员和设备安全。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  The Hunan-Guangxi Corridor, rich in wind resources, is a channel for cold air to move southward into Guangxi. Every winter, there are often severe weather conditions such as low temperatures and freezing, which can lead to problems such as ice coating on wind turbine blades, changes in material and structural properties, and changes in load, resulting in reduced service life of wind turbines and affecting power generation capacity. In Guangxi, the impact of cold wave and low temperature weather on wind power generation has received widespread attention. Low temperature conditions have a significant impact on the operation phase of wind farms. Currently, there are few studies that statistically analyze the operation of wind turbines under low-temperature conditions and their impacts.
      Method  This paper utilized real-time observation data and 0.25 × 0.25 reanalysis data from the European Center ERA5, as well as data from wind energy companies in Guangxi on ice induced shutdowns and wind curtailment power losses. An analysis was conducted on the impact of the low temperature and freezing weather from December 15 to 24, 2023 on the high-altitude wind power generation in northern Guilin. Simultaneously, the formation mechanism and forecasting techniques of Guilin's severe low temperature and freezing weather were analyzed.
      Result  It is found that there is a correlation between environmental temperature, air humidity, and wind power loss, and a correlation formula is derived.
      Conclusion  This research provides a foundation for further prediction and early warning of low temperature weather and wind power generation in Guilin high-altitude wind farm. Using temperature forecasting products from numerical forecasting, the number of daily shutdowns and power losses in the future can be predicted in advance, assisting in wind power forecasting. At the same time, high-precision freezing disaster weather forecast and warning can optimize customer resource allocation, reduce customer property losses, and ensure personnel and equipment safety.

     

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