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1961-2024年中国南方区域性高温过程识别及特征分析

Characterization and feature analysis of the regional heat processes in Southern China from 1961 to 2024

  • 摘要:
    目的 高温天气是影响夏季电力需求波动的重要气象因素之一。
    方法 文章基于区域性高温过程气象行业标准和综合强度评估模型,对1961-2024年中国南方及华中、华东、华南和西南4个分区的区域性高温过程进行识别,系统分析了研究区域高温事件发生频次、发生时间、持续时间、极端性、范围、综合强度等特征,并初步探索了不同分区的发、用电与高温事件之间的联系。
    结果 结果表明:(1)60余年来,中国南方、华中、华东、华南、西南共发生70次、197次、139次、225次、48次区域性高温过程,年平均高温日数分别为16.2 d、22.9 d、17.7 d、18.2 d、8.1 d,高温期分别持续26.1 d、51.3 d、37.3 d、53.1 d、16.4 d。综合考虑发生频次、高温期长度、极端高温和高温过程强度,华南和华中是受高温影响最大的地区;(2)60余年来,南方各地区高温过程年内末次结束日期显著推迟、高温期显著延长;高温过程发生频次、持续日数和影响范围均呈显著增加趋势; 高温过程年内首次开始日期仅华中和华南地区显著提前;(3)经SMK突变诊断,末次日期的突变推迟、高温期的突变延长和累计日数的突变增加多发生于20世纪七八十年代,一旦经历突变,突变期之后相应的线性拟合年际增加趋势都会更加剧烈;(4)区域高温影响南方地区的电力供需平衡,区域高温出现时,依赖外部供电的地区将产生更大的缺口,而有电力盈余的地区则会出现内需增加的现象。
    结论 总体上,中国南方高温灾害呈加剧的趋势,主要表现为高温期延长、频次增加、影响范围扩大、综合强度加重等特点,给电网调度和发供电带来更大挑战;四大分区整体严重程度从大到小依次为:华中、华东、华南、西南。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective High temperature weather is one of the most important meteorological factors that closely bound with the electricity supplies and loads.
    Methed  Applying the regional heat process (RHP) characterization standard and the comprehensive intensity assessment model, the RHPs were identified and characterized in Southern China and its four units, i.e., Central unit (CU), Eastern unit (EU), Southern unit (SU) and Western unit (WU). The heat period length, frequency and duration, average temperature and maximum temperature, extent and comprehensive intensity were objectively analyzed and compared.
    Result It is found that: (1) In recent six decades, Southern China and its four units (i.e., CU, EU, SU, WU) have taken place a total of 70, 197, 139, 225, and 48 times of RHPs respectively; the yearly average of heat days are 16.2, 22.9, 17.7, 18.2, and 8.1 days; the heat period last 26.1, 51.3, 37.3, 53.1 and 16.4 days on annual average. Based on frequency, duration, heat period length, extreme temperature, and comprehensive intensity, CU and SU tend to be more easily influenced by RHPs than other two units. (2) The trend analysis suggests that most parts of Southern China share a significant delaying feature of the ending and a significant lengthening of the heat period; meanwhile, the frequency, cumulative duration and maximum extent also show an increasing trend; Only CU and SU show a significant earlier beginning of RHPs . (3) Following the Sequential Mann-Kendall tests, an abrupt speeding is often detected in 1970s and 1980s for the delaying of the ending, the prolonging of the heat period and the increasing of the cumulative duration. Once the abrupt change happened, the corresponding linear trend after the change point will get more violent. (4) RHPs influence the eletricity supply and deamand balance, when RHPs happen, units depending on outside electricity supplies would have bigger demands while units capable of transfering electricity outside would face an augmentation in its electrical consumption.
    Conclution  Overall, the heat wave disaster in Souterhn China tends to be heavier in a way of prolonging heat period, uprising frequency, amplifying extent, and aggravating comprehensive intensity, which bring stronger challenges to the electricity dispatch and power generation. The overall severity of four units can be listed as CU, EU, SU and WU following a decreasing order.

     

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