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基于风险预警的银川市用电负荷气象服务指标

Meteorological Service Indicators of Power Consumption in Yinchuan City Based on Risk Warning

  • 摘要:
      目的  为保障电力供应的安全性、可靠性和经济性,文章以银川市为例,评估了各区域2014~2022年用电气象风险。
      方法  基于自动气象站观测资料和用电负荷资料等,筛选危险性指标、敏感性指标和易损性指标,采用相关性分析、百分位法、归一化等方法,建立了用电气象风险评估模型。
      结果  用电负荷月变化结果表明:用电负荷峰值出现在供暖期及过渡期(1月、3月、10~12月)和夏季(6~7月),低谷出现在4月和9月,进一步通过相关性分析发现,气温越高,用电负荷越大;相关性分析及专家问卷调查结果表明:用电灾害风险指标为高温强度、高温频率、日用电量、用电负荷、人口密度、小区用电设施,其权重为:0.5、0.5、0.98、<0.01、0.99、<0.01;用电气象风险模型结果:银川市用电气象风险高风险区和较高风险区主要在金凤区,兴庆区主要处于中风险地区,西夏区以较低风险和低风险为主。
      结论  根据用电气象风险评估模型及用电部门的实际需求,可为区域电力供应提供合理的电力调度和供给策略。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  To ensure the safety, reliability and economy of power supply, the paper evaluates the power consumption meteorological risk of Yinchuan City from 2014 to 2022.
      Method  A power consumption meteorological risk assessment model was established by risk index, sensitivity index and vulnerability index, and the correlation analysis, percentile method, normalization and other methods based on meteorological data from automatic stations and electricity load data.
      Result  The results show that the peak of electricity load appeared in heating period and transition period (January, March, October to December) and Summer (June to July), and the lower values in April and September. The results of correlation analysis show that the higher temperature, the greater the electrical load. High temperature intensity, high temperature frequency, daily electricity consumption, power supply load, population density and community power supply facilities are selected as indicators of power consumption by the correlation analysis and the expert questionnaire survey, and the weights are 0.5, 0.5, 0.98, <0.01, 0.99, <0.01. The results of the power consumption meteorological risk model show that the high and higher risk areas of power consumption meteorology in Yinchuan City are mainly located in Jinfeng District, Xingqing District is mainly located in medium risk areas, and Xixia District is mainly characterized by lower and lower risks.
      Conclusion  The research results can provide reasonable power dispatch and supply strategies for regional power supply based on the meteorological risk assessment model for power supply and the actual needs of the power supply department.

     

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