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摘要:目的 为实现“双碳”目标，电源侧的绿色低碳转型是广东实现绿色低碳转型的关键。同时，紧紧围绕新能源发展构建高比例新能源的多元电源支撑体系也是广东建设新型电力系统的重中之重。因此，提前谋划面向碳中和的广东电源结构具有十分重要的意义。方法 在对广东省远景能源供需格局进行研判的基础上，统筹低碳转型和能源安全，考虑非化石能源消费比重、资源条件、电力供应平衡3个方面约束，提出广东面向碳中和的电源发展思路，对不同转型路径进行分析，并提出相关建议。结果 研究表明，碳中和时期，广东省电源总装机规模预计将达到当前电源装机规模的3倍左右；电源供应主体由当前的“火电+核电+外电”组合，转变为“新能源+核电+外电”组合，非化石能源装机比重达到80%，其中，省内新能源装机比重达到50%。结论 广东省的电源结构调整前景看似乐观，然而，这个过程仍然面临政策、技术、产业和市场等诸多挑战，建议转型过程中关注火电在电力系统中的定位转变、保障非化石能源发展关键要素、重视新型电力系统调节能力建设；为了满足碳中和时期广东两倍于现状的电力消费需求，更为重要的是需特别关注引领电源结构清洁低碳转型的科技创新问题，通过科技创新推动新能源类型、能源新技术的探索，向能量密度更大、能效转换效率更高的方向发展。Abstract:Introduction In order to realize the goal of "dual-carbon", the green and low-carbon transformation of power supply side is the key to realize the green and low-carbon transformation of Guangdong, and at the same time, the construction of a diversified power supply support system with a high proportion of new energy is also the most important task for achieving a new type of power system in Guangdong. Therefore, it is of great significance to plan the carbon neutral power supply structure of Guangdong in advance.Method Based on the study of the prospective energy supply and demand pattern of Guangdong Province, this paper integrated the low-carbon transformation and energy security, considered the constraints from the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption, resource conditions, and the balance of power supply, and proposed a carbon-neutral power supply development idea for Guangdong, analyzed different transformation paths, and put forward relevant suggestions.Result The study shows that during the period of carbon neutrality, the total installed capacities of power supply in Guangdong Province is expected to reach about three times of the current installed capacities; the main body of power supply will be transformed from the current combination of "thermal power + nuclear power + external power supply" to "new energy + nuclear power + external power supply"; The proportion of non-fossil energy installed capacity will reach 80%, of which the proportion of new energy resources in the province will reach 50%.Conclusion The prospect of power structure adjustment in Guangdong Province seems optimistic. However, this process still faces many challenges from policy, technology and market, etc. It is suggested to pay attention to the role change of thermal power in the power system, safeguard the key factors of non-fossil energy development, and emphasize the building of regulating capacity for new power system; in order to meet the demand for electricity consumption in Guangdong twice as much as the status quo during the period of carbon neutrality, it is even more important to pay special attention to technological innovation issues leading the clean and low-carbon transformation of power supply structures, and through scientific and technological innovation, to promote the exploration of new energy types and new energy technologies towards the development of greater energy density and more efficient energy conversion.
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图 1 主要研究机构对全国电力需求预测结果
Figure 1. Results of national electricity demand forecasts by research organizations
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图 5 2060年广东电源结构分析思路
Figure 5. Ideas for analyzing the power structure of Guangdong in 2060
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图 6 每吨二氧化碳70%情景与80%情景度电成本差值变化图
Figure 6. Change chart of the difference in electricity cost between the 70% and 80% scenarios per ton of carbon dioxide
表 1 2060年非化石能源装机情景
Table 1 Scenario of installed non-fossil energy in 2060
情景 高海风 高外电 高核电 装机/
GW电量占比/
%装机/
GW电量占比/
%装机/
GW电量占比/
%外电 65 17 85 22 65 17 核电 50~55 24~27 50~60 24~29 65~70 32~34 海上风电 150~160 34~36 110~130 25~30 110~120 25~27 光伏 100~120 8 100~120 8 100~120 8 陆上风电 10 1 10 1 10 1 水电 9.38 2 9.38 2 9.38 2 生物质 10 3 10 3 10 3 
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表 2 70%敏感性方案主要差异
Table 2 Key differences between 70% sensitivity programs
非化石能源消费比重 80%（以高海风
情景为例）70% 差异 海上风电装机/GW 155 120~130 减少30~40 核电装机/GW 50 40~45 减少5~10 火电装机/GW 120 140~150 退役减少10~20 抽蓄储能装机/GW 60 40~50 减少10 煤电发电小时/h 1 200~1 600 2 300~2 500 提高1 000
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