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二氧化碳利用路径气候效益与经济可行性评估

Assessment of the Climate Benefits and Economic Feasibility of Carbon Dioxide Utilization Pathways

  • 摘要:
      目的  碳利用技术可以将CO2转化为燃料、化学品和建材等有价值产品,是一种减缓气候变化、促进资源循环利用的创新科技手段。气候效益和经济性评估是目前碳利用技术分析的难点,也是其技术发展和推广的关键。
      方法  文章从背景分析、基准线选择、边界划分及指标计算等角度,综合构建了一个用于量化分析碳利用减排效益和经济性的方法学。并利用该方法学对4种典型CO2利用技术的单位减排量、平准化减排成本和单位减排收益等关键指标进行了分析。
      结果  研究表明:CO2强化石油开采(CO2-EOR)的单位减排量为1.62~5.85 t CO2/t油。当桶油价格在390元左右时,不同注采比条件下CO2-EOR的单位减排收益为2~1152元/t CO2。CO2加绿氢制甲醇的单位减排量为4.89 t CO2/t甲醇,单位减排收益为负值,即仍需18~833元/t CO2的补贴或同等碳价格水平的支持才能实现减排的盈亏平衡。CO2钢渣固碳技术用于生产建筑材料的单位减排量为0.94 t CO2/t钢渣微粉,单位减排收益为36~164元/t CO2;CO2养殖微藻用于生产生物柴油的单位减排量为0.36 t CO2/t微藻粉,其单位减排收益可达3万~9万元/t CO2。除文章重点研究的指标外,实际的项目决策还需考虑技术稳定性、市场环境和资源条件等因素对经济性的影响。
      结论  不同碳利用技术在不同情景下的减排效果和适用性各异,为确保发挥其积极减排作用,需完善制度建设,推动其融入碳市场,并评估其实际气候影响,以支持具备气候效益的技术。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  Carbon utilization technologies, which convert CO2 into valuable products such as fuels, chemicals, and building materials, represent an innovative approach to mitigating climate change and promoting resource recycling. The analysis of climate benefits and economic viability is a significant challenge in current research on carbon utilization technologies and is key to their development and implementation.
      Method  This study developed a methodology for quantifying the emission abatement benefits and economic viability of carbon utilization technologies, based on background analysis, baseline selection, boundary definition, and indicator calculation. Using this methodology, key indicators such as emission abatement per unit, levelized cost of emission abatement, and abatement benefit per unit for four typical CO2 utilization technologies were analyzed.
      Result  The study shows that CO2 enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR) achieves a unit emission abatement of 1.62~5.85 t CO2/t oil. When the price per barrel of oil is around 390 yuan, the abatement benefit for CO2-EOR varies from 2 to 1152 yuan/t CO2 under different injection-production ratios. The CO2 and green hydrogen-based methanol production achieves a unit emission abatement of 4.89 t CO2/t methanol, with a negative abatement benefit, requiring subsidies or equivalent carbon pricing support of 18 to 833 yuan/t CO2 to break even on abatement. The carbon capture and utilization of steel slag for building material production yields a unit emission abatement of 0.94 t CO2/t steel slag powder, with an abatement benefit of 36 to 164 yuan/t CO2. The microalgae cultivation for biodiesel production achieves a unit emission abatement of 0.36 t CO2/t algae powder, and the abatement benefit can reach 30,000 to 90,000 yuan/t CO2. Beyond the key indicators emphasized in this paper, actual project decisions must also consider the impact of technological stability, market environment, and resource conditions on economic feasibility.
      Conclusion  The carbon abatement effectiveness and applicability of different carbon utilization technologies vary across different scenarios. To ensure their positive contribution to emission abatement, it is necessary to improve institutional frameworks, facilitate the integration of these technologies into carbon markets, and assess their actual climate impact, thereby supporting technologies that provide genuine climate benefits.

     

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