基于风险链和风险地图的风险识别和分析方法——以某海外EPC电力工程为例
Method of Risk Identification and Analysis Based on Risk Chain and Maps: A Case Study of an Overseas EPC Electric Power Project
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摘要:
为了更有效地对海外EPC工程项目进行风险分析和风险控制管理，对工程风险中涉及的风险源、风险因素、风险事件、风险后果及风险损失概念进行了界定和分类。从总承包商的角度，给出了海外EPC建设工程项目的相应风险清单。提出了基于风险链和风险地图的风险识别和分析方法，用具体的海外EPC电力总承包工程作为算例进行了项目风险地图的构建。此套方法可使风险识别和分析的过程程序化，并将所有的风险都统一成费用进行分析，风险链和风险地图的构建过程即为分析风险对费用影响的过程，极大程度地方便了后续风险评估环节的工作。 Abstract:This paper defines and clarifies the concepts of risk source, risk factor, risk event, risk consequence and risk loss involved in the risk related research. From the perspective of the contractor, it gives the corresponding risk list of overseas EPC construction projects. It proposes the method of risk identification and analysis based on risk chain and maps. The project risk map is built with taking a specific overseas EPC general contracting project of electric power as an example. With this method, the process of risk identification and analysis is programmed, and all the risks are unified as cost for analysis. The process of building risk chain and maps is the process of analyzing the effects of risks on the cost. It greatly facilitates the subsequent work in the risk assessment phase.
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