基于风险链和模糊影响图的风险定性评估方法——以某海外EPC电力工程为例
Method of Risk Qualitative Assessment Based on Risk Chain and Fuzzy Influence Diagrams —A Case Study of an Overseas EPC Electric Power Project
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摘要:
海外EPC工程，影响总承包商费用的风险源很多，风险之间的作用关系也比较复杂，并且由于客观评估数据的缺乏，项目整体风险水平的评估是一个较为困难的问题。通过构建海外EPC电力工程总承包项目的风险链和风险地图，将所有的风险都统一成费用进行分析，并采用模糊影响图理论对其进行模糊推理和综合评价。评估的过程只需要评估人员对风险及其关系做出定性判断，此方法具有需要的数据量小、直观和易于理解等优点，适用于项目的投标阶段对风险金进行快速估计。 Abstract:For overseas EPC projects, there are great many risk sources that will impact the cost of the main contractor. Because the interaction between these risks is complex, and also the lack of objective assessment data, risk assessment of the overall project is a difficult problem. By building risk chain and maps of the overseas EPC electric power project, all risk assessment are unified into analysis of cost, this article uses the fuzzy influence diagram theory for risk fuzzy reasoning and comprehensive evaluation of the project. The whole process only requires evaluators to make qualitative judgments to assess the risks and their relationships. This method has advantages that only requires a small amount of data, intuitive and easy to understand, etc., applicable for quick estimates of the project risk premium in the project bidding stage.
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