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发电量预测误差受地形图精度影响分析

Analysis of Effects of Map Precision on Forecast Error of Energy Production

  • 摘要:
        目的   为了探究部分复杂地形风电项目中高精度地图发电量预测误差较低精度地图更大的原因。
        方法   采用开源CFD软件OpenFOAM结合自编后处理程序,针对项目输入为参考地图、高精度地图以及低精度地图的三种工况进行了计算分析。
        结果   结果表明:高精度地图测风塔位置处主风向地形较实际地形差异程度过大,是造成发电量预测误差更大的原因。
        结论   更进一步验证基准点(测风塔)地形对发电量影响的普遍性规律:对不同精度地图而言,基准点处周边地形与实际的相符程度决定了整场发电量的差异大小,可为复杂地形风资源评估工作提供有益的参考。

     

    Abstract:
        Introduction   The paper aims to find out the reason why the forecast error of energy production using high-precision map is much larger than that using low-precision map in several wind power projects with complex terrain.
        Method   The calculation and analysis of energy production under the conditions: reference map, high-precision map and low-precision map were carried out, by using the open source CFD software OpenFOAM with self-compiled post-processing program.
        Result   The results show that the terrain along prevailling wind direction at meteorological mast excessively different from the reality leads to the greater forecast error of energy production in high precision map.
        Conclusion   The data validate the analysis results and obtain the universal law that the consistency between terrain and reality at datum points of different precision maps determines the difference of total energy production. This work provides beneficial reference for wind resources assessment in complex terrain.

     

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