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在十八届三中全会深化体制改革的背景下,我国电力体制改革重装上阵,2015年3月23日国务院发布了文件〔2015〕9号《关于进一步深化电力体制改革的若干意见》(简称电改9号文),电力体制改革正式拉开帷幕。在当前的新形势下,电力市场条件下的竞争机制给计划经济环境下电力行业组织和运营体制带来了巨大改变,同时也极大地影响到电力规划的技术实施,特别是规划主体的变化和市场化运作的要求导致的规划方案的评判标准的变化。
在电力市场环境下,电源和电网规划所包含的变量、制约因素、规划目标更多,复杂性更高,需考虑可靠性、经济性等多维因素,其难点在于如何建立科学的数学模型[1],对复杂的问题进行求解,并进行评价和校验。电网规划也将面临规划环境、系统资源,规划协调、实施等方面的调整和挑战,可以反映为负荷、电源、潮流、设备投退、政策、社会经济、商业模式、投资收益等多方面的不确定性因素,电网规划过程中需要充分考虑并客观合理地描述这些不确定因素[2],建立更恰当的电网规划模型,有效提高规划灵活性及适应性,避免投资和安全运行风险。所以在这种新形势下,整个电力规划的研究方法和研究手段都需要进一步优化。
广东地区积极响应国家政策号召,一直走在电力市场改革道路的前沿,现货电力市场也在全国范围内率先启动。广东电源结构复杂并且多样化,在电力市场环境下,广东对新的电力系统规划方法的需求更为迫切。本文梳理和总结了国外成熟电力市场的发展现况以及电力系统规划方法,并在此基础上,结合广东电力市场发展现状,有针对性地提出了电力市场环境下广东电力系统的规划方法,对未来合理配置电源、促进发输电协调发展具有重要意义。
Initial Investigation of Guangdong Power System Planning Method Under Power Market Environment
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摘要:
目的 在电力市场的新环境下,电力系统规划所包含的变量、制约因素、规划目标更多,复杂性更高,需考虑可靠性、经济性等多维因素,可以反映为负荷、电源、潮流、设备投退、政策、社会经济、商业模式、投资收益等多方面的不确定性因素,需要充分考虑这些不确定因素,建立更恰当的规划模型,整个电力规划的研究方法和手段都需要进一步优化。 方法 首先梳理了澳大利亚、美国PJM、欧洲等国外较为成熟的电力市场的现状,并对其电力系统规划的模式和方法进行了分析。 结果 结合广东电力市场发展的现状,有针对性的对电力市场环境下广东电力系统的规划方法进行了优化。不仅对电力规划工作的体制机制给出了优化调整建议,同时,根据传统的广东电力系统规划方法,从规划输入、项目分类、情景研究、电网经济效率评估和不确定性分析五方面进行了补充和改进。 结论 在广东现货市场的新环境下,通过建立合理的电力系统规划和评估体系,可有利于合理配置电源,实现网源之间的协调规划,更好地适应未来电力市场的发展。 Abstract:Introduction Under the new environment of power market, the power system planning contains more variables, constraints, planning objectives and complexity. The uncertainty variables include load, power supply, power flow, equipment retirement, policy, social economy, bussiness mode, investment profit, etc. It is necessary to establish appropriate plannnig model based on the complexity mentioned above. The research methods of the whole power planning and means need to be further optimized. Method Firstly, this paper reviewed the status quo of the more mature power markets in Australia, PJM in the United States, Europe and other foreign countries, and analysed their power system planning models and methods. Result Combined with the current situation of Guangdong power market development, this paper optimized the planning method of Guangdong power system under the power market environment. Not only did it give suggestions for optimizing and adjusting the institutional mechanism of power planning work, but also complemented and improved the five aspects of planning input, project classification, scenario study, grid economic efficiency assessment and uncertainty analysis according to the traditional Guangdong power system planning method. Conclusion Under the new environment of Guangdong spot market of energy, by establishing a reasonable power system planning and evaluation system, it can be beneficial to rationalize allocation of power sources, achieve coordinated planning between network sources, and better adapt to the future development of the power market. -
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