Projected Population Distribution Estimation During the Lifetime of NPP
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Abstract
During the siting, construction and operation phases of nuclear power plant (NPP), it is essential to analyze the population distribution characteristics and predict the population trend of the surrounding area, in order to evaluate the population distribution and possible variation trend during the NPP lifetime, and used for the basis of public radiation dose evaluation and emergency planning feasibility demonstration. Population Projection surrounding the NPP always based on the present population distribution situation, Malthus population prediction model can be chosen for analysis and prediction with the consideration of actual and population projection data from relevant provinces or cities. As the Chinese population variation is affected by many factors, such as region, policy and economy, etc. There are many uncertainties for the prediction parameters. Moreover, the evaluation area of some NPP is related to different districts, problems and difficulties would be arisen in the practical work. In this paper, some possible solutions were suggested. Related analysis and population prediction methods will be expected to be beneficial reference in the population projection around the nuclear power plant.
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