Method of Risk Qualitative Assessment Based on Risk Chain and Fuzzy Influence Diagrams —A Case Study of an Overseas EPC Electric Power Project
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Abstract
For overseas EPC projects, there are great many risk sources that will impact the cost of the main contractor. Because the interaction between these risks is complex, and also the lack of objective assessment data, risk assessment of the overall project is a difficult problem. By building risk chain and maps of the overseas EPC electric power project, all risk assessment are unified into analysis of cost, this article uses the fuzzy influence diagram theory for risk fuzzy reasoning and comprehensive evaluation of the project. The whole process only requires evaluators to make qualitative judgments to assess the risks and their relationships. This method has advantages that only requires a small amount of data, intuitive and easy to understand, etc., applicable for quick estimates of the project risk premium in the project bidding stage.
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