Power Demand Forecast for Shenzhen Under Carbon Peak and Neutrality andGreater Bay Area and Pilot Demonstration Area of Socialism with Chinese Characteristics

  Introduction  The research aims to establish a new forecasting methodology to study the future electricity consumption features in Shenzhen based on the correction of traditional power demand forecasting methods. The new methodology could reflect the influence of the recently issued policies, such as the "carbon peak and neutrality" and "construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and pilot demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics."

  Method  For electricity consumption forecast, a "top-down" forecasting method guided by carbon intensity control and considering social electrification level was proposed, and "bottom-up" forecasting was made using the improved multi-sectoral method and new load correction method to validate the forecasting results. For load characteristics forecasting, the impact of demand side management and peak shaving means was fully considered.

  Result  Through quantitative analysis of the energy supply and consumption mix adjustment under key impact factors, including "carbon peak and neutrality," new infrastructure, industrial structure adjustment and transfer under "construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and pilot demonstration area of socialism with Chinese characteristics," the total electricity consumption in Shenzhen during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and in the middle to long term, as well the development trend of the future peak load and load characteristics in Shenzhen were forecasted.

  Conclusion  The proposed forecasting methodology provides new idea for other regions in power demand forecast under new policies, and the results provide an important reference for guiding Shenzhen's subsequent power source and grid planning, dispatch and operation, etc.